Last week, the bitcoin market trend was flat, and it continued to hover on the low and low threshold of $ 6,000. There is not much room for hope to see a breakthrough upward. The only good news that is not good is that the difficulty of bitcoin mining has finally been lowered, from 16.55TH to 13.9TH. The reduction rate has reached 15.95%. Data monitoring shows that this is the second largest adjustment in bitcoin mining difficulty. .
Since the 12th of this month, most people have begun to hope that after the adjustment of the difficulty of computing power, so that the mining machine that has just touched the profit and loss line can continue to start up and make profits. Only in this way can the entire industry take a breather from miners to mines. space. Of course, this is a method that has no way. The lowering of the mining difficulty will increase the potential risk of the Bitcoin network. If the difficulty of mining is drastically lowered many times in a row, the consensus of Bitcoin will be questioned and cause greater trampling. accident. I only know that the currency price will affect the mining industry. In fact, mining is the foundation of the price of Bitcoin.
1. The mining difficulty is lowered, the old mining machine is back to the light
Statistics show that after the difficulty of this round of computing power is lowered, the unit mining income of miners in the field will increase by 19%, and some miners near the profit and loss line can be turned on again with extremely weak profit space. According to the F2POOL mining pool data, some models of the ant s9 series, core move T2 series, and Avalon A9 series have recovered above the profit and loss line. The previous generation of mining machines that started shutting down after the market crashed on the 12th. The profitability is currently weak. Under the condition of 0.35 / kWh of electricity in the mainstream mines, the mining cost is maintained at more than 90%. The market is a bit windy. Miners may fall into the embarrassing situation of mining at a loss.
Although the profitability of mining machines is weak, the recovery of the entire network's computing power is obvious. Before the adjustment of mining difficulty, the computing power of the entire network once fell below 80EH. After the adjustment of mining difficulty, the computing power was callback to about 100EH. However, this part of the computing power is not stable, and it may be withdrawn at any time due to the recovery of mining difficulty or the fluctuation of the market, so the miners may have to switch the mining machines frequently to maximize the mining revenue in the next time.
It is impossible for old miners to mine normally. The month before the bitcoin mining reward was halved was the last time they returned to light.
2.the Ant S19 debuts, will the miners pay?
Also last week, S19 and S19pro, the latest generation of mining machines from Ant, were officially launched. It is expected that the first batch of mining machines will be delivered in May this year. Ants S19 and S19pro are the latest 7nm mining machine, adopting the latest overall optimization technology that bitland is proud of. The computing power of s19 reaches 95T energy efficiency ratio of 34.5J / TH, and the single computing power of S19PRO is as high as 110TH The first miner with a single machine with a computing power of over one hundred) has achieved an amazing energy efficiency ratio of 29.5J / TH. The only one on the market that can compete with the S19 series is Shenma's M30S mining machine, which has a computing power of 88T and a power consumption ratio of 38J / TH.
The two major mining machine factories on the market both showed their strongest fighting machines, and the meaning of snatching the market could not be more obvious. Among them, the Shenma M30S has begun small-scale delivery, which has obvious advantages in terms of market share. As soon as the Ant S19 was released, the news of a tens of millions of orders from a miner was also very tit-for-tat.
From the observation of various signs in the market, the miners' enthusiasm for the super-large computing power mining machine does not seem to be as enthusiastic as expected. The ant S19 futures price quoted by the mining machine dealers of Huaqiangbei on the day of the sale was already lower than the official price. Is this a face-to-face speed? It can be seen that mining machine manufacturers have predicted the negative feedback of the market, and dealers will enjoy more preferential policies in advance.
In addition to the unclear market trend, the slower game between miners may be a more profound reason:
1): The rate of entry of newcomers slows down, and the balance among the miners in stock is reached. The market is warm and the gains from mining are not ideal, and the newcomers who are ready to enter the market have chosen to wait and see. For the miners with a large amount of memory in the field, it is more in their own interest to keep the current situation unchanged than to actively upgrade the miners to cause a new round of arms race. So even if the new miner has excellent performance, the miners have not shown the urge to pay.
2): The big hashing mining machine upgraded last year is still in the current cycle: the mainstream mining machines in the mine are now the 7nm big hashing mining machine just launched last year, such as Shenma's M20S and Ant's S17 series . This part of the mining machines is generally still in the payback cycle. At least before the batch of miners in the field returns, the miners have no power and sufficient funds to upgrade better machines. So in the face of better-performing machines, miners tacitly chose to wait and see.
3): Compared with the dazzling data, the miners are more concerned about reporting problems. The mining machine is a thorough productivity tool. The core logic of the miner's purchase of the mining machine is the return rate of mining. More specifically, how long does the machine produce per year and how long does it take to recover the cost? The most powerful S19rpo official website sells for 20770 yuan and costs 188.8 yuan per T. According to the electricity price of 0.35 / kwh, the daily mining net income of 57 yuan returns to this cycle. It takes 364 days, which is one year, this return The cycle is not attractive to miners or even worse than some old miners after the current price reduction.
The reality is like a bucket of ice water, which has caused the mining industry that has been suffering from high fever since last year to start to cool. Miners also learn to look at the progress of the entire industry more sensibly. It is not the strength of the mining machine that determines whether you can make a profit.
3. The mining machine is not a nuclear weapon. The important thing is to master the computing power.
This round of mining difficulty has been lowered, which has greatly increased the profits of the miners who remain in the field. It also includes cloud computing mining that has not been seen by miners. According to statistics provided by RHY Mining Weekly, Hash Power has accounted for far more than 10% of the hash power mining in the entire Bitcoin network. It is understood that this part of the computing power will be the least affected in the current round of the downward trend. Cloud computing power miners can be said to be the group that has benefited the most from this round of difficulty reduction.
Many industry insiders judged that according to the current market trend, there will be a large number of mining machines that will be shut down after the Bitcoin halving in May. There is room for further reduction in the difficulty of Bitcoin mining. How much computing power can continue mining is the hard power of the miners. Therefore, many miners turned to a cloud computing power platform that they had not seen before, and turned into a cloud computing miner.
The cloud computing power model includes the characteristics of electricity bills and no continuous investment, so that the cloud computing power miners have a strong anti-risk ability, and they can mine and hold the coins. The traditional mining model shows strong profitability when the market goes up, but once it encounters a market like the recent one, it may fall into a long-term loss-making state. The rational mining union prefers to hold computing power over mining machines. After all, if the mining machine fails to start up, it is equivalent to scrap iron and the cloud computing power can be turned into a currency-based gain in the worst case.
Extreme market conditions have allowed miners to start to examine themselves and the industry. Miners who are used to talking about return rates must begin to learn to calculate the balance between risk and return. Mining will continue while the industry may have entered another track.
